Weather.com – A hurricane warning is in effect for Bermuda as Hurricane Joaquin moves on a path that will take it very near the archipelago Sunday into early Monday.
(MAP: Track Hurricane Joaquin with our New Interactive Storm Tracker)
Hurricane Joaquin Information
The latest statistics as provided by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center.
The current forecast path brings the center of Hurricane Joaquin just west of Bermuda Sunday. Joaquin is forecast to be a Category 2 hurricane as it makes its closest approach to Bermuda.
However, hurricanes are not simply a point on the map, but have impacts well away from the center.
Tropical storm-force winds extend out just over 200 miles from the center and hurricane-force winds extend 70 miles out. This means that tropical storm-force conditions will undoubtedly lash Bermuda by late Sunday morning and the possibility exists for hurricane-force winds to also impact the island in the afternoon and early evening.
Interests in Bermuda should now be prepared for hurricane conditions (winds 74 mph or greater) during the second half of the day on Sunday, along with significant coastal flooding from storm surge and large, battering waves. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are also expected.
Visible Satellite and Bermuda Conditions
During daylight, you will see the clouds more or less as they would look to the naked eye from space. At night, it’s too dark to see the clouds, so this image will display infrared satellite data instead. Current conditions in Bermuda are also shown.
It is also important to note that the strongest winds will be on the immediate east side of Joaquin, which will almost certainly pass directly over Bermuda. Hence the reason for the hurricane warning.
Since Joaquin is a fast-moving storm, heading northeast at 20 mph, it should be quickly moving away from the island on Monday.
Joaquin had another bout of intensification early Saturday. Utilizing an instrument for estimating surface winds, the stepped frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR), a Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance mission Saturday estimated surface winds of around 135 knots, or 155 mph just before noon.
By wind speed, Joaquin at that time was the strongest Atlantic hurricane since Hurricane Igor in 2010 also had 155 mph maximum winds. It has been over eight years since the last Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin, Hurricane Felix in 2007.
Hurricane Joaquin: Watches and Warnings
Bermuda was impacted by two hurricanes last season, Hurricane Fay and Hurricane Gonzalo.
Joaquin will stay away from the Atlantic coasts of the U.S. and Canada, due in part to the influence of an extremely dangerous non-tropical system over the southeastern U.S.
(MORE: Dangerous Flash Flooding | Coastal Flood Threat, Too!)
Joaquin’s Fury Departs the Central Bahamas
After pummeling parts of the central Bahamas for over 36 hours, Joaquin’s eyewall, the ring of extreme winds surrounding the eye itself, has now pulled far away from the storm-battered islands.
Flooding from storm surge and torrential rainfall has been documented on Long Island and Acklins, among other central Bahamas locations. A Weather Underground personal weather station at Pitts Town, Crooked Island, reported winds up to 84 mph before it stopped reporting.
A total blackout was reported on the three hardest-hit islands of the central Bahamas. About 85 percent of the homes in one settlement on Crooked Island were reportedly destroyed.
(MORE: Bahamas Latest News/Impacts | Cargo Ship in Joaquin)
The National Hurricane Center was forecasting storm surge flooding of 6-12 feet above normal tide levels, in addition to rainfall of up to 25 inches. Given the small size of the islands, the electrical grid will likely experience a complete blackout and may be partially or completely destroyed. Recovery could take weeks or months.
Conditions, there, will slowly improve through the remainder of the weekend as Joaquin gains forward speed and moves northeast.
(MORE: Expert Analysis | Hurricane Central)
Forecast Track
Computer forecast models – and the meteorologists who use them for guidance – grappled earlier with a complex interaction between Joaquin, a cold front near the East Coast, the remnants of Tropical Storm Ida, a strong bubble of high pressure aloft over the North Atlantic Ocean, and a strong area of low pressure aloft digging into the southeastern U.S.
Over the last few days, those computer forecasts put out a bewildering range of future track scenarios, though mostly in two main camps – one favoring a U.S. landfall, and the other favoring a decisive northeastward path over the open waters of the western Atlantic.
On Thursday, computer models moved closer to a consensus, as models formerly bullish on a U.S. landfall began pulling their forecast paths east, favoring tracks closer to the Atlantic seaboard or even entirely offshore. By Friday morning, the overwhelming majority of reliable track models kept the center of Joaquin away from the U.S. East Coast.
Ensemble Model Forecast Tracks
The lines on this graphic represent several of the many ensemble track forecasts from various computer models. This is not an official forecast, but models such as these are often used as guidance for creating the projected path for a storm.
Data from NOAA Gulfstream aircraft surveillance missions and extra balloon soundings launched from National Weather Service offices on the mainland may have contributed to the eastward shift in some of the model guidance.
(MORE: 3 Reasons Hurricane Joaquin Has Been So Difficult to Forecast)
That model consensus is reflected in the forecast track accompanying the latest National Hurricane Center advisory.
Projected Path
Rapid Intensification Earlier
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft flying through Hurricane Joaquin Thursday morning found estimated surface winds of 117 knots, or roughly 135 mph, in the southwestern eyewall’s deep thunderstorms.
At one point between Wednesday morning and Thursday evening, Joaquin saw a pressure drop of 57 millibars in about 39 hours, going from a strong tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane in the process.
Colorado State University tropical meteorologist Dr. Phil Klotzbach said Joaquin was the first Category 4 hurricane to track through The Bahamas in October since 1866. Joaquin’s minimum central pressure of 931 millibars Thursday was also the lowest observed in an Atlantic Basin hurricane since September 2010, when Hurricane Igor bottomed out at 924 millibars.
Klotzbach also said Joaquin was only the 20th Category 4 or 5 hurricane to impact The Bahamas in historical records dating to 1851, and the second latest in the season to do so. Only a Nov. 10, 1932 Category 4 hurricane occurred later, Klotzbach says.
Hurricane Joaquin rapidly intensified as wind shear – harmful to the intensification of tropical cyclones – diminished, allowing Joaquin’s core convection to feed off the warm water near the central Bahamas. However, wind shear will increase once again as Joaquin moves north this weekend over cooler water, leading to steady weakening.
Check back with us at weather.com and The Weather Channel for the latest developments on Joaquin.